Brent Above 111 Dollars While the US Ten-Year Yield Breaks Below 5 Percent

The US 10-year Treasury yield fell below 5 percent for the first time since 23 September, touching 4.996 percent — down about 15 basis points on the day and roughly 30 basis points below its 5 October peak of 5.31 percent.

The move came as equities sold off. The Nasdaq fell 2.2 percent and the S&P 500 fell 1.4 percent, with META, TSLA and AMZN leading the slide. Money rotated out of AI stocks and into bonds. The bond market, on this reading, is treating the AI selloff as a growth scare rather than an inflation event — and if doubts about capital expenditure spread, falling yields could become the cushion the rest of the market leans on.

One measure of how unusual the session was: the US 10-year traded below France's 10-year yield for the first time in 13 years.

The part that reaches Ethiopia

Running underneath all of this, Brent crude is above 111 dollars — its highest level since May.

That is the number on this page with a direct line to the Ethiopian economy. Fuel is among the country's largest import categories, it is paid for in dollars drawn from reserves that the auction system rations weekly, and its price feeds through to transport costs, which feed through to the consumer price index. A sustained Brent above 111 dollars widens the import bill at precisely the moment the National Bank is trying to hold the birr steady through managed auctions.

The two halves of this story point in opposite directions for a frontier importer. Cheaper global borrowing eventually helps a sovereign that needs to refinance. Expensive crude hurts immediately, in cash, this quarter.

Open

Whether the yield move marks a turn or a pause depends on data not yet published. Nor is it clear what is driving Brent to May highs — supply discipline, geopolitical risk premium, or demand — and the distinction matters for how long importers should expect to pay it.

Sources: Venture Capital, 23 October 2026